Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Condor








13 October 2015

Legion Condor – Russia in Syria?

By: Karsten Riise

Russia in Syria – preparation for Ukraine?


What is Russia’s purpose of sending its newest air force weapons to war in Syria?

Well, of course we can all see that Russia supports an ally country, where it has military basing rights. We can see, that Russia combats militant Islamist networks and USA’s proxy-forces, which could and might also become a problem in Russia. We can see that Russia with close-border by-fly-maneuvers commands respect of Turkey, USA and NATO. And we can see, that Russia in international politics takes the initiative, places Russia center-stage – and humiliates USA big-time. That’s a lot.

But could there be more to it?

Attached I present a scenario for what Russia needs to do in Ukraine – a big military operation to bring about a friendly regime-change. Just like USA has done so many times in places in its areas of interest.

So what is in under view-point the connection between Syria and a probable Russian military intervention in Ukraine:
1. Test and live exercise in the use of Russia’s modern new air aircrafts, precision laser-guided bombs and rockets, cruise missiles with 1,500 km reach, probably drones, use of satellite intelligence and communications, operation of spetsnaz special commando forces and so on. (Oh, yes – Russia’s spetsnatz are in Syria too).

2. Test and demonstrate the limits of NATO - degrade the willingness of USA and NATO to intervene against Russia.
3. Show Russia’s big military capabilities to the world – and give NATO doubts of going against Russia.


Russia’s needs a regime-change in Ukraine (see attachment). That will be a big operation.

So Russia must make sure of three things to optimize the success before a big operation in Ukraine:

(A) That Russian forces are tested and trained to work in the most effective way possible. (B) That NATO does not under-estimate Russia and try to intervene directly in Ukraine. (C) Distract the attention of NATO to Syria away from Ukraine, because a regime-change operation in Ukraine will demand major military and political preparations.
You ever heard about ‘Legion Condor’ in the Spanish civil war? 

‘Legion Condor’ was a German high-tech air unit operating in Spain, doing live test of Germany’s newest weapons just before Second World War. Of course, ‘Legion Condor’ (just like Russia in Syria) also helped an ally in a war – but nobody at that time knew that this was in a way just an extra effect to the larger picture: Preparation for a bigger war.

I will never compare Russia politically with Germany of that time – Russia plays a constructive role in the world today.

But the mission of ‘Legion Condor’ and the air force of Russia in Syria might right now be the same.


Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor


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